A mere half month after US-Vietnam relations elevated twice in diplomatic stature, there are whispers of a massive arms deal being discussed between the two nations.
On September 23, Reuters, citing two informed sources, reported that the US is in dialogue with Vietnam about the largest-ever weapons transfer agreement between the two countries, which includes the American F-16 fighter jets. However, the negotiations are still in their early stages, and the final terms have yet to be agreed upon, leaving open the possibility that the deal may fall through.
An informed source suggested that this deal could potentially be finalized within the coming year, further cementing the newly upgraded partnership between the US and Vietnam. This source added that this has been a focal point in official US-Vietnam dialogues over the past month. Yet, discussions are still preliminary, and it’s uncertain whether they will come to fruition.
Another anonymous informant mentioned that the US is considering special financing provisions for the expensive equipment to aid Vietnam in reducing its reliance on cheaper Russian weaponry, given Vietnam’s financial constraints.
Neither the White House nor the spokesperson for the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry responded to media requests for comment.
According to a US official, there’s definite interest from Vietnam in some of the systems the US offers, especially equipment that would enhance marine surveillance capabilities. This could include transport planes or other platforms. Furthermore, the US government is exploring ways to offer Vietnam better financing options to help them acquire genuinely useful equipment.
“Vietnamese officials recognize the need for significant investment,” the official noted, “We should lead the way in assisting Vietnam with their defense requirements.”
In light of the proposed “significant” defense collaboration, Reuters hinted that it “might provoke Vietnam’s neighboring country, China.” Jeffrey Ordaniel, Deputy Professor of International Security Studies at Tokyo International University and Director of Maritime Security at the Pacific International Forum, perceives that while the US and Vietnam are enhancing their asymmetrical defense capacities, both countries wish to avoid a backlash from China, striving for a “delicate balance.”
The report states that Vietnam annually spends around $2 billion on weapon imports. Since the lifting of the arms embargo in 2016, US defense exports to Vietnam have been limited to Coast Guard vessels and training aircraft. Vietnam sources 80% of its arms from Russia. High costs of American weaponry, and the associated training, are primary reasons Vietnam’s purchases from the US totaled less than $400 million over the past decade. However, there’s optimism from the US side that, in the long term, Vietnam may redirect some of its defense budget towards American and allied partners.
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive partnership between the US and Vietnam. On September 10, US President Biden held talks with Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Subsequently, Vietnam formally elevated its relationship with the US to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” This means Vietnam has upgraded its relationship with the US by two levels to the highest grade, on par with its relations with China and Russia.
Some international media opined that, even though the US aims to draw Vietnam closer as a counterbalance to China and Russia, a tighter relationship doesn’t signify a significant shift in Vietnam’s “strategic trajectory.” Maintaining a balanced foreign policy with major powers aligns with Vietnam’s best interests.
Professor Zhao Weihua, Director of the Center for China’s Relations with Neighboring Countries, remarked that the symbolic significance of the upgraded US-Vietnam relationship outweighs its practical impact, as the US is already one of Vietnam’s most important external relations. The elevation seems more of a formal procedure, prompted repeatedly by the US.
Regarding Vietnam’s effort to balance between China and the US, Zhao believes it’s typical of Southeast Asian nations and there’s no need to be overly concerned about Vietnam taking sides. The economic ties between China and Vietnam are too intertwined for Vietnam to risk full alignment. China can maximize its infrastructure advantage to promote integration with transport routes in Vietnam and other countries like Myanmar.
