By Bei Shi
According to reports from the Serbian Radio and Television (RTS) and Agence France-Presse (AFP), during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit on August 29, Serbia and France signed 11 cooperation agreements across various sectors, including a €2.7 billion contract for the purchase of Rafale fighter jets. Under this agreement, Serbia will replace its outdated Russian-made MiG fighter jets with Rafales. It is reported that Serbia has purchased a total of 12 jets, including nine single-seat and three dual-seat models, with a total cost of €2.7 billion, averaging €250 million per jet — certainly not cheap. France is indeed skilled at “reaping profits.”
Currently, the Serbian Air Force is primarily equipped with MiG fighter jets produced by the former Soviet Union, along with some aging Yugoslav jets. These MiGs are mainly MiG-21 and MiG-29 models, with only 14 MiG-29s in total. Aside from the four received from Yugoslavia, most were provided for free by Russia and Belarus. However, these are mostly old A and B models, and even with upgrades to the 29SMT, they still lag behind the modern Rafale. It’s important to note that according to the latest information, the Rafale jets ordered by Serbia will start being delivered in 2028, and they may be further upgraded by then.
As an advanced 4++ generation fighter jet, the Rafale boasts strong multi-role capabilities, able to carry air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles, anti-ship missiles, and other types of weapons to execute various combat missions. It can even launch nuclear weapons for strategic strike missions. With a payload capacity exceeding 9 tons, it is quite rare among medium-sized fighter jets, making it favored by several mid-tier military powers. For instance, India abandoned plans to procure new MiG-29s in favor of the Rafale, intending to counter China and Pakistan.
Although the Rafale is impressive, both China and Russia have excellent competing products. So, what caused Serbia to change its stance? It seems there are two main reasons. First, diplomatic factors: French media asked Serbian President Vučić whether purchasing Rafales signaled Serbia aligning more with the EU and distancing itself from Russia. Vučić responded that he was “proud” of Serbia’s balanced foreign policy.
Years ago, Vučić lamented that he had to make “reluctant” decisions due to Western pressure. This is understandable, as Serbia, a small nation within Europe, has been subjected to bullying and has little influence or voice. To survive, it must “make friends widely.” Purchasing Rafales is a step towards closer alignment with the EU. Like India, Serbia is pursuing balanced diplomacy, with the practical outcome being a tilt towards the West and away from Russia. This diversifies Serbia’s arms sources and enhances its strategic security and diplomatic autonomy.
On the other hand, while both China and Russia can export fighter jets, such as the J-10C and Su-35, Russia is currently mired in the Russia-Ukraine war, leaving its jet production capacity severely strained. Who knows when the orders could be fulfilled? Moreover, purchasing Russian-made jets amid the ongoing conflict signals a pro-Russia stance, which would likely result in Serbia being isolated by European nations.
As for the objective reason for not choosing Chinese jets, it could be that the J-10C has performed poorly in the international arms market. Recently, it was rumored that Thailand also abandoned plans to buy the J-10C in favor of the Gripen. In contrast, the Rafale has been in high demand in recent years, so it’s only natural that customers follow the trend. Additionally, penetrating the European market is tough; trying to compete with the US, Europe, and Russia will be a long battle. Serbia will likely continue to focus on Chinese drones rather than fighter jets for future purchases.