The Russia-Ukraine war, a conflict that was expected to end quickly, has surprisingly dragged on for two and a half years. The attitude of Western countries towards Ukraine has shifted from indifference to support and now to active involvement. On the battlefield, we even see organized foreign mercenaries, whose origins are intriguing.
In this prolonged war, Russia has occupied about 1,000 square kilometers of territory in Eastern Ukraine. Both sides have repeatedly fought over this land, leading to a stalemate. As Ukraine’s leader, Zelensky has been actively engaging with global media, calling for support from other countries, and frequently announcing plans for a counteroffensive in the fall. However, on the actual battlefield, the performance of Ukrainian forces has been lackluster, leading many to question whether Ukraine’s counteroffensive is merely a slogan to seek assistance from other nations.
But no one expected the counteroffensive to actually happen. On August 6th, Ukraine gathered elite forces and swiftly launched an attack on Kursk. This historically significant battleground, which last saw conflict 79 years ago during World War II, was once again engulfed in flames. Ukraine’s attack was fierce, advancing hundreds of kilometers in just a few days, with the forces aiming directly at Moscow. Although Russia publicly claimed that Ukraine’s forces were limited in number and had been effectively repelled, subsequent reports indicated that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers had already entered Russian territory.
Russia’s response has surprised everyone. What was initially thought to be a small-scale harassment by Ukraine turned into a large-scale offensive. Most of Russia’s forces are concentrated on the Eastern Ukrainian front, leaving them seemingly unable to handle the tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops. Whether this expulsion battle will proceed as Russia hopes remains uncertain.
Looking back at the war, we can see that Ukraine’s military actions were not unprepared. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has been launching small-scale attacks on Russia. It started with terrorist activities, followed by drone attacks. During this process, Russia exposed a fatal flaw—its lack of air defense capabilities. The fact that a small drone could successfully reach Russian territory speaks volumes.
With drone support from the West, Ukraine has achieved significant success in drone warfare. They even managed to destroy multiple Russian aircraft before they could take off. On the Donbas battlefield, Ukraine, equipped with drones and other advanced technology, waged an asymmetric war, causing Russia to struggle. Even the Russian fleet in the Black Sea suffered heavy losses.
In this sense, Ukraine’s military actions targeted Russia’s weaknesses in a well-planned operation. They effectively implemented a strategy of leveraging their strengths while avoiding their weaknesses. Historically, Russia’s military deficiencies have been due to years of inadequate funding, leading to stagnant military infrastructure development. Many of their military technologies are decades old. It’s hard to believe, but Russia’s GLONASS navigation system, which is supposedly on par with China’s BeiDou and the U.S.’s GPS, proved ineffective, with Russian military operations even relying on GPS for navigation. Early on, rumors suggest that many Russian military deployments were compromised as a result.
In terms of military tactics, Russia is also lagging. Due to a lack of equipment and incomplete reforms, their forces appear outmatched on the battlefield. In 2018, Russia sent one of its top mechanized infantry regiments to confront a Chinese combined-arms battalion. While the war was expected to last several days, the Chinese battalion secured victory and annihilated the Russian forces in just 40 minutes. Yet, on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, Russia deployed its combined-arms battalions, but their combat effectiveness pales in comparison to China’s.
Due to a lack of information systems, Russia could not effectively control these combined-arms battalions. Combined-arms battalions are designed for offensive operations, not defense. They need a complete information chain to perform well. However, Russia used them for defense, thereby exposing their weaknesses.
In reality, Russia’s combined-arms battalions have decent combat capabilities, and when integrated into China’s information systems for command operations, they perform comparably to Chinese forces. But the overall performance of the Russian military has been disappointing, revealing significant issues in their military infrastructure. In tactical command, Russia focused on the Eastern Ukrainian front, neglecting border defenses. It’s important to note that Kursk directly borders Ukrainian territory, yet its defenses were virtually non-existent, allowing Ukrainian forces to penetrate with ease.
On this newly opened battlefield, Russian forces were caught off guard, while Ukrainian forces were well-prepared. Through this new battleground, Ukraine managed to turn the tide. This offensive on Russian soil aims to alleviate pressure on the Eastern Ukrainian front, forcing Russia to redeploy its forces and giving Ukraine some breathing space. Additionally, it shifts the conflict onto Russian territory, attempting to gain the upper hand in the war through a blitzkrieg strategy and apply maximum pressure on Russia with limited forces. If possible, Ukraine might even attempt a dramatic “capture the leader” operation.
However, the military disparity between Russia and Ukraine remains vast. Ukraine’s attempt to advance through Kursk and attack Moscow seems unlikely to succeed. To relieve the pressure on Kursk, Russia might have to withdraw large numbers of troops back to its homeland, which would greatly increase the pressure on the Eastern Ukrainian front. In this scenario, if Russia doesn’t retract its defenses, its vulnerable lines may be breached by Western mercenaries. If they do retract, it would mean that their efforts on the Eastern Ukrainian front have been in vain. Ultimately, the plan to draw away Russian forces has proven to be a failure.
The stalemate on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield inevitably leads one to wonder: if it were China facing a similar situation, could it effectively respond? Historically, China has maintained a distinction between local garrisons and central military forces. For example, during the Northern Song Dynasty, the 800,000-strong Forbidden Army in Tokyo was a typical central military force. Today, under military reform, while military development leans towards theater commands, China still has 14 divisions of the People’s Armed Police (PAP).
The PLA once converted 14 secondary infantry divisions into mobile PAP divisions. Although the name changed, the military training did not weaken; it actually intensified. Their military equipment may differ from that of the regular army, but they are far superior to their Russian counterparts. The Russian National Guard mainly uses riot control vehicles, wheeled armored vehicles, sniper rifles, and assault rifles, mostly light equipment, with a severe lack of anti-material weapons. Meanwhile, China’s PAP is equipped with infantry fighting vehicles, various helicopters, and artillery, boasting a robust fire support system. Although labeled as the PAP, they resemble more of a rapid reaction force.
Due to the lightweight nature of their equipment, this armed force can be quickly mobilized to any battlefield within the country. Although their equipment may not match that of the PLA, they are fully capable of defending the homeland. If a war were to break out in China and foreign forces suddenly invade, the PAP could quickly reach the battlefield, contain the situation, and control the course of the war. Their goal is to block and annihilate small enemy forces as soon as they enter the country.
Technically, the PAP falls under the police system and is not considered part of the military. This means that no matter the situation, the PAP will always serve as a stabilizing force. This reflects the foresight and political wisdom of China’s leadership. In this regard, Russia still has much to learn.
The Russia-Ukraine war has dragged on for two and a half years, bringing endless suffering to the people of both countries. Instead of continuing this war, which brings nothing but suffering, it would be better to resolve the conflict and come to the negotiating table. This is the right way to end the conflict. The people of both countries long for peace and the resumption of economic development. Why continue with endless warfare?
Looking back on this war, we can see that both Ukraine and Russia have paid a heavy price. China’s wisdom lies in maintaining vigilance and preparedness for war. China has a strong PAP force as a defensive force, ready to respond to any emergency. This reflects China’s foresight and pursuit of peace.