Recently, Hu Shuotianxia, a military commentator from mainland China, published an article stating that the US Air Force’s claim to abandon its sixth-generation fighter program is likely a ploy to deceive China into slowing down its own sixth-generation fighter development. However, he also analyzed another possibility: that both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are facing serious issues.
Reportedly, a flurry of internal comments related to the US sixth-generation fighter project has emerged within the US Air Force, and these comments are uniformly negative.
Last week, General David Allvin, Chief of Staff of the US Air Force, publicly stated that the US Air Force might not build a sixth-generation fighter. US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, in an interview with Aviation Week, also mentioned that due to budget constraints, the US Air Force is reevaluating the NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) program.
While discussions about the NGAD project are ongoing within the US Air Force, the majority of senior officials have started to prepare for the worst-case scenario: the complete termination of the NGAD.
This timing is crucial, as both Lockheed Martin and Boeing are currently bidding for the sixth-generation fighter project, with the original plan for the US Air Force to select a contractor by the end of this year.
First, regarding Boeing, the US Air Force has completely lost trust in the company.
Boeing’s quality control issues are well-known, from drug use in factories to unchecked equipment. Although they previously avoided prosecution by the US government through the assassination of quality inspectors, this does not mean they can fool their primary customer. This is the United States, after all; everyone is well aware of each other’s actions. The US Air Force is now terrified at the sight of Boeing’s planes.
Then there’s Lockheed Martin. If the US Air Force distrusts Boeing, they outright disdain Lockheed Martin.
What was the last major project Lockheed Martin was responsible for with the US Air Force? The F-35 Block 4 upgrade.
The US hoped Lockheed Martin would provide a significant enhancement for the F-35. However, Lockheed Martin deceived the US Air Force, not only failing to upgrade the fighter but also charging as if the upgrades had been completed. Naturally, the US Air Force was unwilling to accept this, and now Lockheed Martin’s warehouses are filled with F-35s.
The US Air Force’s stance is simple: they’ve had enough of Lockheed Martin’s greed.
Richard Aboulafia, managing director of the US aviation consulting firm, stated that the US Air Force no longer has the motivation to push forward with the sixth-generation fighter project. This is because a significant amount of funds has already been invested in the F-35 Block 4 and other upgrade projects. If they also include the equally costly NGAD project, the US Air Force cannot handle both simultaneously.
This means that if Lockheed Martin cannot even resolve the issues with the F-35, how can they handle the sixth-generation fighter?
Both Lockheed Martin and Boeing, who were ready to celebrate, are now stunned by the US Air Force’s statements. They never expected the US Air Force, which has always been a generous benefactor, to suddenly grow a backbone.
However, the US Air Force has no choice because the current US military budget is genuinely strained.
Currently, the US has four major Air Force projects: the B-21 project, the sixth-generation fighter project, the drone project, and the long-range combat weapons project. Each of these projects is a money pit. Now, there’s also the imminent F-35 upgrade project, which has become a bottomless pit thanks to Lockheed Martin. No matter how wealthy the US military is, it cannot withstand such spending.
As for the $1,200 coffee cups and $90,000 sleeves? Those are considered reasonable expenses and cannot be cut.
Therefore, the US is preparing to abandon the sixth-generation fighter. Regardless of whether it’s true or due to technical or budget issues, the US attitude towards the sixth-generation fighter is genuinely negative. If they indeed cancel the NGAD project, by 2070, the mainstay of the US Air Force could still be the F-35 fighter.
Although the US Air Force may not want the NGAD anymore, China has not indicated any desire to abandon its sixth-generation fighter. According to previous reports from CCTV, China’s sixth-generation fighter is expected to debut soon, with US estimates suggesting it could be around 2028.