In less than two months, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has twice released footage of “monitoring” Chinese fighter jets. The first instance was during the “Joint Sword 2024A” exercises in May 2024 in China’s eastern theater, where Taiwan’s Air Force revealed images of F-16V (blk20) using the AN/AAQ-33 “Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod” (referred to by mainland China as the “Advanced Targeting Pod”) to monitor Chinese J-16 and H-6 military aircraft. The second instance occurred on July 11, when Taiwan’s military again published footage of an F-16B aircraft using the Sniper Pod to target a J-16.
The release of these monitoring images twice has left the Chinese Air Force speechless?
Taiwan’s two releases of “monitoring” footage of Chinese military aircraft have sparked various interpretations and discussions. Initially, the terminology itself has evolved; while Taiwan initially used “monitoring,” some media later began using “locking on” and “targeting.” Secondly, interpretations of the military significance vary widely: Taiwan’s official stance is that it demonstrates strong monitoring capabilities, while scholars and pundits have speculated further, suggesting scenarios like “reasonable conjecture that the aircraft may be unaware of being tracked or locked on, achieving silent kill capabilities,” and emphasizing “I see you, I’m firmly on you, and can strike you at any time,” “sword drawn warning to the aircraft,” “PLA scared out of their wits,” and so on.
Some media outlets have pointed out that according to analysis by Taiwanese National Security Research Institute scholar Su Ziyun, Taiwan’s release of such footage constitutes “reconnaissance deterrence,” letting the PLA know that Taiwan can track their military movements. It has also been suggested that this serves to inform the Taiwanese public that “the military can effectively monitor the latest movements of the PLA.”
There are even claims from Taiwan’s national security personnel that this is a display of Defense Minister Goulixiong’s “show of strength” against the CCP since taking office, causing the PLA to be “scared out of their wits.” Additionally, reports indicate that the PLA was so intimidated that they fell silent. Military bloggers from the mainland immediately countered, accusing Taiwan of “self-deception.”
In fact, when Taiwan first released footage of F-16V “monitoring” J-16 and H-6, the well-known mainland Chinese military blogger “Air and Sky Power” immediately criticized it on WeChat public account as “far-fetched.” “Air and Sky Power” contrasted this with previous footage of US B-52 bombers being intercepted at close range by Chinese J-11 fighters using their Sniper pods. The images released by the US military were very clear, with large areas heavily pixelated, indicating that besides identification boxes, other unmentionable identification details can be seen. Multiple targeting frames (as shown in the figure below).
However, the images released by Taiwan were not only relatively blurry but also only had a simple identification box. “Air and Sky Power” speculated that Taiwan’s aircraft “clearly used long-focus lenses to take distant shots and then enlarged them,” “basically shooting videos of Chinese aircraft from a distance, then enlarging and playing them back, only then would the shape of J-16 and H-6 appear blurry, various targeting frames that were originally supposed to appear on the screen disappeared.”
“Air and Sky Power” concluded: “Taiwan’s F-16V aircraft simply did not dare to fly close to Chinese aircraft, just took a few videos from a distance and returned to report.” “At most, it can be considered as ‘long-distance photo evidence,’ it is really deceiving oneself.”
The refutation escalated to central media, and CCTV criticized Taiwan’s actions as very dangerous
After Taiwan’s second release of footage, mainland China’s countermeasures escalated to the level of central official media. CCTV’s “Strait Talk” program broadcast on July 12, a nearly 30-minute discussion on “showing off and following J-16 Taiwan’s actions are very dangerous.” The program characterized Taiwan’s actions as “self-promotion” and “self-praise,” with commentary from Colonel Teng Jianqun, a former Chinese Navy officer, who believed Taiwan’s claims were “completely boosting their own morale.”
Teng Jianqun’s reason was that J-16, alongside J-10 and J-20, constitute China’s Air Force “Three Musketeers,” capable of contesting air superiority and engaging in ground attacks. In addition, the J-16D has been improved since 2021 to become an electronic warfare aircraft, “one of the few in the world with electronic warfare capabilities, capable of suppressing all enemy strike platforms.”
Teng Jianqun further elaborated that if Taiwan dispatched one J-16D to each side of Taiwan, many of Taiwan’s weapon platforms would become ineffective, “missiles can’t be launched, communication links lost, command and control would be ineffective.” He also said, “Current air combat is not just about knife fighting, but more about long-distance gaming,” “capable countries are now developing ‘soft kill’ electronic suppression, completely paralyzing the opponent on the ground.” He believes that Taiwan’s military’s emphasis on capturing images of J-16 actually “reveals extreme concern or anxiety about this type of aircraft.”
Hu Yong, associate professor at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, questioned on the show that the photos released by Taiwan’s military “may have been taken by tourists.” “Even if they were taken by Taiwanese military aircraft, the resolution is very low, indicating that the distance between F-16 aircraft and J-16 aircraft is very far. Some people speculate that it may be F-16V aircraft using radar to detect the approximate position of J-16 aircraft, and then secretly shoot from a long distance using the ‘Sniper Pod,’ and enlarge it afterwards to pretend to lock onto the J-16 aircraft, thus fooling Taiwan’s netizens.”
Host Li Hong of the “Strait Talk” program made a very strong conclusion, saying “It is clear that Taiwan’s military currently does not have the strength to intervene, but it insists on adopting a duel posture. The military strengths of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are already vastly different. If the DPP authorities continue to act wilfully and collude with external forces, attempting to ‘seek independence through force,’ it will inevitably lead to military confrontation between the two sides.”
Locking on means launching an attack. Does the Taiwan military have no concept of modern air combat?
Several images of F-16V “monitoring” J-16 and H-6 have led to different interpretations and self-interpretations on both sides, and a “air combat” at the level of cognition has begun. In other words, the effects triggered by the “Joint Sword 2024A” military exercise in May continue to fly over the Taiwan Strait airspace today, indicating that the escalating hostility between the two sides sparked by military actions is still rising.
Is this a “cognitive warfare” or have the aircraft on both sides reached a close-range game where they could accidentally fire? An unnamed aerospace military expert in Taiwan told the author, “The issue is simple,” Taiwan’s F-16V equipped with the Sniper Pod is not used for “targeting,” but rather for assisting in ground attacks or targeting maritime targets, not for “air combat.”
Military experts said the key is that Chinese aircraft “do not evade,” Taiwan’s radar aircraft can do “lock-on.” He emphasized that the problem is generally not to “lock-on” the other party in the air, because “locking-on” means launching an attack, the other party will also have reflexive action, indicating that both sides will enter the state of air combat.
As for whether the published photos have a “deterrent” effect on Chinese aircraft? The military expert laughed and said, “Recently, he asked Taiwan Air Force pilots specifically, and now mainland military aircraft fly around Taiwan every day,” “Nothing, can be seen every day,” “Everyone in the air will even compare gestures.”
Military experts bluntly stated that Taiwan’s claim to publish the picture can “frighten” China is a stretch, completely highlighting the Taiwan military’s lack of understanding of modern air combat concepts. “If one day a war really breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, what we see now won’t matter, and the reality will be far different from what is being talked about. Anyway, let them say what they want.” (Zhang Junkai)