In recent years, Sino-Russian relations have appeared increasingly close and solid. However, underlying conflicts and clashes of interests have continued to simmer. Recently, there have been reports that China has asked to redeem the Tumen River estuary from Russia to gain access to the sea and revitalize the northeastern economy. However, this request was rejected by Russia. This move not only casts a shadow over Sino-Russian relations but may also mark a significant turning point in their relationship.
First, we need to understand the importance of the Tumen River estuary. The Tumen River is a crucial river in northeastern China, and control over its estuary is key to revitalizing the regional economy. The Tumen River estuary was originally obtained by Russia through the violation of initial agreements during the signing of unequal treaties with the Qing Dynasty. Although Sino-Russian relations have warmed over time, Russia has always maintained a firm stance on issues of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. China’s hope to redeem the Tumen River estuary to break the economic bottleneck in the northeast was met with Russia’s resolute refusal, clearly demonstrating Russia’s steadfast position on territorial issues. This incident highlights the underlying conflicts of interest between China and Russia and suggests that their relationship may face new turbulence.
Against this backdrop, Russian President Vladimir Putin has engaged in a series of noteworthy diplomatic activities. He made a swift visit to North Korea and Vietnam, reaching a quasi-military alliance with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and promising to provide nuclear technology to Vietnam. Putin’s moves have garnered significant attention and concern in China.
Firstly, the quasi-military alliance between North Korea and Russia will draw North Korea deeper into the Russia-Ukraine war. This will not only increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula but could also trigger instability, forcing China to face off against the United States and its allies (South Korea and Japan) on the Korean Peninsula once again. There are even rumors that North Korea, at Putin’s request, is preparing to deploy four engineer combat brigades, totaling about 20,000 troops, to the eastern battlefield of Ukraine to support a new Russian offensive. Stability on the Korean Peninsula is crucial for China, and any unrest could have significant security and economic implications for China.
Secondly, Russia’s promise to provide nuclear technology to Vietnam has also raised concerns in China. Vietnam and China have long-standing disputes over the South China Sea islands. If Vietnam acquires advanced nuclear technology, or even develops nuclear weapons, it will significantly bolster its confidence and capability to confront China over these disputes. Moreover, this will greatly reduce Vietnam’s manufacturing sector’s reliance on Chinese electricity. This will pose greater challenges to China’s interests in the South China Sea, making the regional situation even more complex.
Meanwhile, the changing political situation in the United States is also affecting Sino-Russian relations. President Biden’s recent loss in a debate against Trump indicates that if Trump is re-elected, he will likely end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly and seek an alliance with Russia to counter China. During the debate, Trump explicitly stated, “The Russia-Ukraine conflict was provoked by the Biden administration; Ukraine cannot win.” This statement implies his intention to change the policy towards Russia, aiming for a “joint effort with Russia against China.” Trump hopes to focus on dealing with China by cooperating with Russia.
Putin has long harbored a deep-seated desire to integrate with the West, and Russia’s credibility on the international stage has always been relatively poor. Faced with Trump’s proposal, it will be difficult for Putin not to be tempted. If Russia accepts Trump’s cooperation proposal, Sino-Russian relations will face unprecedented challenges.
In summary, Sino-Russian relations are undergoing a profound transformation. China’s setback regarding the Tumen River estuary, Putin’s diplomatic activities in North Korea and Vietnam, and the changing political situation in the United States are all exacerbating tensions between China and Russia. In the future international landscape, China will need to respond more cautiously to the dual pressures from Russia and the United States to safeguard its core interests.