On the 8th of this month, the South China Sea Ecological Center and the South China Sea Development Research Institute of China’s Ministry of Natural Resources jointly released an “Investigation Report on the Illegal ‘Grounding’ of a Military Ship on Ren’ai Reef and Its Damage to the Coral Reef Ecosystem.” The report accused the grounded Philippine military ship of causing irreparable damage to the diversity, stability, and sustainability of the coral reef ecosystem at Ren’ai Reef.
On the 16th, Chinese media outlet Observer published an interview with Wu Shicun, the founding president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies and chairman of the China-Southeast Asia South China Sea Research Center. Wu stated that if Beijing does not take swift action to restore peace at Ren’ai Reef, it could cast doubt on China’s resolve and capability to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. This inaction might also embolden the Philippines to take more risks, using the support of external powers to expand its infringements in areas like Xianbin Reef, Tiexian Reef, and Huangyan Island.
Wu believes that China should have long ended its “cat-and-mouse game” with the Philippines at Ren’ai Reef with decisive action. In response to the Philippines’ actions in the relevant waters, Wu suggested that Beijing does not need to resort to military means but should employ civil law enforcement measures through the Coast Guard. He proposed that China should set a clear deadline for the Philippines to withdraw all military personnel and outline a humanitarian supply arrangement during the transition. If the Philippines does not accept the proposal, China could declare a “temporary warning zone” in the Ren’ai Reef area based on Article 25 of the PRC Coast Guard Law, effective February 1, 2021, and Article 35 of the Coast Guard’s Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures, effective June 15 this year, to prevent or block any actions by the Philippines to change the status quo.
Regarding the handling of the grounded ship, Wu pointed out that the Philippine military ship has been illegally “grounded” at Ren’ai Reef for 25 years, and its hull is likely severely corroded or even rotten, making it difficult to tow away. Therefore, the most likely solution would be to “cut it in place.”
The eighth anniversary of the South China Sea arbitration ruling was recently marked. On July 11, the Huayang Ocean Research Center, the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, and the Chinese Society of International Law jointly released a report in Beijing titled “Rebuttal of the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling,” highlighting significant errors and flaws in the ruling. At the time, Wu Shicun stated that large-scale military conflict in the South China Sea region is unlikely, but the likelihood of small-scale, sporadic skirmishes is increasing.
However, some Chinese analysts believe that the Philippines should be allowed to remain at Ren’ai Reef for as long as possible. This would provide a perfect reason for China to deploy its navy and coast guard on a large and regular scale in the South China Sea, thereby countering actions by the United States and other militarily hostile countries in the region.