According to a report by the Japanese media outlet Yomiuri Shimbun, after analyzing last year’s military exercises conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Japanese government concluded that the PLA has the capability to deploy ground forces to land in Taiwan within as little as a week. This new assessment significantly shortens the previous estimate by the Japanese government, which suggested it would take about a month.
The report details that the Japanese government’s analysis focused on the PLA’s missile launches and naval exercises conducted domestically and in nearby seas last summer. A senior Japanese government official disclosed to the media that, following a series of comprehensive exercises, if various PLA units were to engage in simultaneous operations, the PLA could blockade the surrounding seas and airspace of Taiwan within days and facilitate a large-scale landing of ground forces.
The report claims that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has already been informed of these analysis results this year.
The Japanese media report reveals that the Japanese government envisions the PLA’s order of operations for a military attack on Taiwan to involve naval blockades, missile strikes on Taiwanese military facilities, deployment of troops using landing ships and transport helicopters to establish beachheads, and the transportation of troops and tanks using landing ships and large civilian cargo vessels.
The report also suggests that the PLA anticipates potential counterattacks from Taiwan and intervention by the US military, which could hinder their operations. Therefore, the PLA might consider suppressing Taiwan before the main US forces can intervene. Additionally, Beijing might launch a “hybrid war” against Taiwan, combining military attacks with cyber attacks on critical infrastructure to delay US intervention.
Regarding the duration of the conflict and the evacuation of foreign nationals, the report cites the Japanese government’s analysis, highlighting that if the PLA were to adopt ultra-short-term operations before US forces could react, the ability of countries like Japan and the US to respond quickly would become a focal point. For instance, Japan would need to consider how to protect approximately 20,000 Japanese nationals in Taiwan and evacuate residents of the Okinawa Prefecture’s Sakishima Islands near Taiwan.
On the aspect of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces’ response, under the 2015 Security Legislation, the Japanese government must evaluate whether the situation meets the criteria for providing rear support to US vessels in a “situation having an important influence” or exercising limited collective self-defense in an “existential crisis situation.” If the Japanese Self-Defense Forces were to be mobilized in response to these situations, parliamentary approval is generally required in advance. The report notes that for Japan to respond to ultra-short-term operations, swift judgment by the Japanese government would be crucial.