Despite the reported serious accident involving a Chinese 093 nuclear submarine in October last year, which resulted in the loss of all 55 Chinese navy personnel, China’s resolve to develop its nuclear submarine fleet has only strengthened.
On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the Chinese navy’s submarine fleet, CCTV Military Channel aired a promotional video last week about the submarine force. The information released in the video has become a hot topic among Chinese military enthusiasts in recent days.
An officer from the navy’s submarine squadron summarized the development of the PLA submarine force in the video with eight characters: “Nuclear and conventional, with a focus on nuclear.”
Just a few days before, on the morning of June 18, a PLA Navy 094A strategic nuclear submarine surfaced in the Taiwan Strait and then sailed north on the surface, escorted by a warship. Many believe this indicates that the latest Chinese nuclear submarine had malfunctioned, forcing it to surface.
In recent years, China has been vigorously building its nuclear capabilities, constructing numerous missile silos in the northwest, clearly preparing for the Taiwan Strait. Initially, China believed that around 300 nuclear warheads would be sufficient to deter any major power, but the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw millions of deaths in the US while maintaining social stability, surprised the Chinese.
The US’s restraint during the Russia-Ukraine war has provided China with significant insights. According to the annual report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in mid-June, China’s nuclear arsenal reached 500 warheads in January this year, a significant increase of 90 from the previous year. However, it is believed that China actually has over 1,000 nuclear warheads.
With the rapid development of China’s navy and air force, the Chinese military is increasingly gaining an undeniable advantage within the first island chain. As the balance of power tilts more towards one side, maintaining calm becomes increasingly difficult.
The PLA’s move towards “nuclear and conventional, with a focus on nuclear” is a crucial part of China’s efforts to enhance its nuclear deterrence, making the US more hesitant to intervene directly in a potential military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The Pentagon’s annual assessment of China’s military power, released last October, noted that the PLA currently has 60 submarines, including six strategic nuclear submarines, six attack nuclear submarines, and 48 conventional-powered submarines. By 2035, the total number of Chinese submarines is expected to reach 80.
An article in The Wall Street Journal last year titled “The Era of U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China Is Coming to an End” pointed out that China is making progress in submarine technology and underwater detection capabilities, narrowing a significant gap between the Chinese and US militaries. This has a major impact on the US’s military plans to respond to a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
On the one hand, China’s improved anti-submarine capabilities will make it more complicated and difficult for the US to sink PLA warships with submarines to thwart an attack on Taiwan. On the other hand, China’s nuclear submarines may be deployed east of Taiwan to prevent US and allied intervention.
Chinese military enthusiasts speculate that China’s nuclear submarines will soon be produced in large numbers. Once a certain technological level is achieved, the routine patrols of Chinese nuclear submarines will become more frequent, transitioning from regular patrols of attack nuclear submarines to routine patrols of strategic nuclear submarines, and eventually to strategic nuclear submarines on patrol with missiles, entering a state of combat readiness.