As the leadership transition in Taiwan approaches, mainland China appears to be taking preemptive action. Several large vessels, each displacing tens of thousands of tons, are moving from the Bohai Bay towards the Taiwan Strait, presumably to prepare for potential changes in the situation.
Public navigation information reveals that recently, the Bohai Pearl, a passenger Ro-Ro ship under Bohai Ferry Company, completed a sea crossing from Yantai to Dalian. Instead of returning to Yantai from Dalian as usual, it sailed southeast from Bohai Bay into the Yellow Sea, suggesting it may continue heading south.
Simultaneously, the Bohai Jewel, which had sailed south from Bohai Bay and then traveled upriver along the Yangtze to Nanjing a few days earlier, re-entered the ocean after loading cargo in Nanjing. It was spotted near Ningbo before sailing southward, and it is likely now in the Taiwan Strait.
Bohai Ferry Company’s main business involves ferrying across the Bohai Bay between Yantai and Dalian. Their passenger Ro-Ro ships rarely undertake other commercial transport missions outside the bay. Instead, these ships are often requisitioned by the Chinese military for temporary missions to the south, such as exercises involving amphibious landings along the Fujian coast. In 2022, there was an incident where seven Bohai Ferry Company ships simultaneously headed south to Fujian.
Thus, the southward journey of the Bohai Pearl and Bohai Jewel is likely for participation in military exercises at ports like Xiamen. The requisitioning of civilian Ro-Ro ships by the Chinese military undoubtedly takes into account the real situation in the Taiwan Strait, preparing for potential future amphibious landing operations.
Large-scale amphibious operations in the Taiwan Strait differ significantly from island-seizing operations in the South China Sea. In the South China Sea, the main focus is on securing sea control, where deploying one or two specialized amphibious ships like the Type 071 or Type 075, carrying a battalion-sized marine unit, can accomplish most tasks.
However, in the Taiwan Strait, China faces a complex, large-scale amphibious campaign. Any operation would be the largest amphibious assault since the Normandy landings. Although China has numerous specialized amphibious ships, they can only transport a few brigades per trip across the strait. Relying solely on these vessels would waste significant time in loading, unloading, and traveling, slowing the progress of subsequent landings.
Therefore, it is crucial to leverage China’s civil-military integration system, involving large civilian ships in the landing operations to transport follow-up troops and supplies. Among civilian transport ships, large Ro-Ro ferries, which can allow vehicles to drive directly off the ship via ramps and can carry 1.5 to 2 combined battalions, are the military’s first choice.
Specifically, if a large-scale conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, China would first deploy amphibious ships carrying specialized marine units to seize beachheads with support from aviation and long-range firepower. After securing some docks, civilian Ro-Ro ships like the Bohai Pearl would dock or use temporary bridges at the beachheads to unload heavy armored units, quickly forming a second wave of attack to advance inland.
Due to their crucial role in amphibious operations, the movement of these civilian Ro-Ro ships to the southeastern coast always attracts significant attention. Their deployment for exercises often correlates with changes in the Taiwan Strait situation, as seen with the current southward movement of the Bohai Pearl and Bohai Jewel.
On May 20th, Taiwan will hold its inauguration ceremony, marking the leadership transition. Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a speech, setting the tone for the future cross-strait relations. There is widespread speculation that this speech will be a critical moment determining the future direction of the Taiwan Strait situation. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) might use this opportunity to either signal a desire for détente or further assert a hardline stance against mainland China, continuing to provoke cross-strait tensions. Given the retention of Bi-khim Hsiao, who played a negative role in the aftermath of the “malicious collision incident,” as Chairperson of the Mainland Affairs Council, the latter scenario seems more likely.
Meanwhile, the United States is also actively supporting the DPP, maintaining tension in the Taiwan Strait. Recently, a U.S. destroyer passed through the Taiwan Strait under the pretext of “freedom of navigation.”
The overall changing situation dictates that the Chinese military and other departments need to increase their activities around the Taiwan Strait to prepare for potential upcoming developments.
As these civilian Ro-Ro ships head south, China’s navy and air force have already intensified their routine patrols around Taiwan. On May 13th, while the air force did not dispatch a large formation, some fighter jets patrolled closer to Taiwan. Six fighter jets approached within 52 nautical miles of Taichung in the Taiwan Strait, and four fighter jets reached 39 nautical miles from Eluanbi in Taiwan’s southwest airspace.
China’s coast guard and other departments have also increased patrols in the Xiamen-Kinmen waters, conducting a multi-departmental maritime exercise.
In summary, China has preemptively positioned itself to handle any potential developments. Should tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait in the coming days, the Chinese military and coast guard are ready to respond with extensive exercises, sending a clear message to the pro-independence factions in Taiwan and Washington.
