On the 15th day of the Kinmen Incident and the 9th day of closed-door negotiations between the two sides, there have been new developments.
Based on the testimony of two surviving fishermen, simultaneous with strong demands and comprehensive pressure from mainland China, Taiwan no longer insists that the mainland fishing boat capsized during a high-speed chase. Instead, it is claimed to be caused by the deliberate high-speed collision by the Coast Guard Administration.
Recently, according to reports from Taiwanese media and related sources, the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office has intervened in the investigation of the case and confirmed that the fishing boat indeed capsized due to collision, and the two boats collided more than once. The Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office also stated that the entire case is being investigated under the charge of “negligent homicide,” which carries a maximum penalty of 5 years. Although it still requires scientific identification to determine whether the Coast Guard personnel should bear criminal responsibility, civil compensation is inevitable.
Previously, whether it was the responsible Taiwan Coast Guard Administration or the Mainland Affairs Council responsible for handling cross-strait relations, neither admitted to the collision but instead shifted the blame onto mainland fishermen. Taiwan-related sources released information saying that the Kinmen Detention Prevention Branch of the Coast Guard has produced three investigation transcripts for each of the two surviving fishermen, and later, as witnesses, the two were questioned by prosecutors from the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office, each producing two interrogation transcripts, both expressing no objections to the law enforcement procedures of the Coast Guard.
The Mainland Affairs Council of Taiwan even counterattacked, stating firmly that the mainland has long tolerated illegal fishing by “three withouts” (without vessel name, without vessel registration certificate, without registered port of origin), and Taiwan will continue to enforce the law rigorously and prudently. Without permission, mainland vessels are not allowed to enter Taiwan’s restricted or prohibited waters. To safeguard the rights of fishermen, competent authorities will expel or detain trespassing vessels in accordance with the law. “This has been the case in the past, it is now, and it will continue to be in the future.”
However, after the mainland officially intervened and repatriated the two surviving fishermen, confirming that the Coast Guard’s claims were lies, the Mainland Taiwan Affairs Office’s statement escalated. Based on the “strong condemnation” on the day of the incident, it expressed “strong indignation,” demanding that Taiwan “quickly release the ships and the crew, do a good job in handling the aftermath, clarify the truth, and deal with the relevant responsible persons seriously, giving an account to the families of the victims and people on both sides of the strait,” and stating that it “reserves the right to take further measures.”
Mainland maritime police also initiated regular patrols in the Xiamen-Kinmen area, with a police vessel even entering the “restricted and prohibited” waters of Kinmen and inspecting a Taiwanese yacht for about 30 minutes. Taiwanese media and international commentators generally believe that the mainland, by doing so, has essentially permanently changed the “status quo” in the Xiamen-Kinmen area, transplanting the “Diaoyu Islands model” to Kinmen. After the Japanese government nationalized the Diaoyu Islands in 2012, Chinese maritime police vessels began regular patrols in the Diaoyu Islands waters, taking the initiative based on the tonnage advantage and changing the status quo unilaterally governed by Japan.
Kinmen is more disadvantageous to Taiwan compared to the Diaoyu Islands. Kinmen is adjacent to the mainland and far from Taiwan. In the situation where the balance of power across the strait has completely shifted toward the mainland, Taiwan cannot resist the mainland in this maritime area.
Kinmen was once the frontline of military confrontation between Taiwan and the mainland, with 100,000 Taiwanese troops stationed there. Now there are only symbolic 3,000 troops, which are no longer militarily meaningful. Taiwan’s law enforcement vessels in Kinmen not only have limited numbers but also pitifully small tonnages, all around 10 tons, while the four maritime police vessels deployed by the mainland each have tonnages exceeding 2,000 tons. In terms of daily management and law enforcement, Taiwan is completely unable to compete with the mainland.
Previously, the mainland did not break the “status quo” in the Xiamen-Kinmen area, partly out of consideration for cross-strait peace and partly to avoid embarrassing the Taiwanese authorities, showing mercy as the stronger party. However, the Taiwanese side repeatedly exhausted the mainland’s peaceful intentions and goodwill, repeatedly “biting the hand that feeds,” seizing mainland fishermen and their vessels, until the bloodshed during the Lunar New Year period when two fishermen were deliberately chased and capsized by the Coast Guard.
On the other hand, including Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te, the highest administrative authorities in Taiwan are well aware of the balance of power across the strait. They also know that before Lai Ching-te’s election and inauguration this year, the mainland had been looking for an opportunity to teach the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a lesson, letting the DPP know that the mainland can strike Taiwan at any time with fatal blows, to warn Lai Ching-te to recognize the situation after taking office.
If Taiwan insists on escalating the situation towards confrontation, it cannot be ruled out that the mainland will take actions to make it even harder for the DPP Tsai-Lai government to govern Taiwan, such as directly enforcing the law on Kinmen Island, seizing Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels and law enforcement personnel, essentially controlling law enforcement and stripping Taiwan of its governance rights in Kinmen, starting the implementation of the “one country, two systems” without name but in reality. If the mainland takes this step, the DPP Tsai-Lai government will lose all face and will not be able to justify itself to the domestic public.
Therefore, after the mainland’s escalated stance and comprehensive pressure, the Tsai Ing-wen government quickly softened its stance, not only releasing the two fishermen, admitting that the incident was caused by the Coast Guard’s intentional collision, allowing the mainland to inspect and photograph the collided fishing boat, but also starting to request the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office to investigate the case as “negligent homicide,” which could lead to a maximum of 5 years in prison for the suspects.
However, politicians care about their reputation. In the highly confrontational situation across the strait, the Tsai-Lai government must handle it with caution to prevent a collapse of public opinion. Therefore, while softening its stance, the Tsai-Lai government still wants to save face. According to related reports, official negotiations between the two sides have recently stalled because of this. Taiwan still refuses to hand over the bodies of the deceased and the fishing vessels for various reasons, and regarding the mainland’s demands for the Coast Guard to publicly apologize, Taiwan insists that it is acting in accordance with the law and cannot apologize. Additionally, there is still no agreement on the amount of civil compensation, whether it should be termed as “compensation” or “consolation money.” Whether the mainland can continue to pressure Taiwan to fully accept remains to be seen. (Hang Ziya)