Recently, led by France and the United States, 23 countries announced the establishment of an international “Artillery Alliance.” Its main task is to continuously provide various advanced artillery weapon systems to Ukraine in the coming period, aiming to maintain the Ukrainian military’s capability to continue fighting against the Russian forces. This also signifies that, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, the “confrontation” between Russia and Western countries will enter a new stage.
The Rise and Fall of the “God of War”
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the first large-scale war dominated by ground artillery forces since the 1990s, completely overturning many military experts’ understanding of modern warfare. Our understanding of modern warfare essentially started with the Gulf War. On January 17, 1991, a multinational force led by the U.S. launched a massive air strike operation codenamed “Operation Desert Storm” against the main Iraqi forces in Kuwait and important military targets inside Iraq. By February 23 of that year, the multinational forces had carried out nearly 100,000 sorties with various types of aircraft, dropping over 90,000 tons of bombs. The first combat use of the “Tomahawk” cruise missile during this operation provided new insights into modern large-scale air strike operations for military experts.
“Operation Desert Storm” significantly weakened the Iraqi forces’ resistance (both materially and mentally), rendering them incapable of defending against the ground offensive known as “Operation Desert Sabre,” launched by the multinational forces starting on February 24. Notably, during the 100 hours of “Operation Desert Sabre” from local time on the 24th to the 28th, the multinational forces’ air power continued to execute high-intensity air strikes, cooperating with ground forces like a sharp knife penetrating the heart of Iraq.
Fundamentally, the Gulf War was the first modern high-tech war where the outcome was determined by the airpower and long-range precision strike forces represented by cruise missiles. The ground offensive during the 100 hours of “Operation Desert Sabre” was essentially the cleanup work carried out by ground forces. The Iraqi ground forces had already been subjected to high-intensity, large-scale air strikes during “Operation Desert Storm,” losing their will to resist. They essentially collapsed and fled in the face of the ground offensive of “Operation Desert Sabre.” Therefore, the numerous Iraqi tanks and armored vehicles destroyed by the multinational ground forces in “Operation Desert Sabre” were equipment abandoned by Iraqi soldiers on the battlefield, almost equivalent to hitting fixed targets in live-fire exercises.
Subsequently, the “airpower dominance theory” became popular, with many military experts believing that air forces and high-intensity, large-scale precision strikes launched from airborne, land-based, and sea-based platforms would be the decisive forces in modern and future wars. Several subsequent local wars confirmed this, with the most notable being the 1999 Kosovo War. At that time, the air forces of NATO countries, led by the United States, launched continuous large-scale air strikes against the Southern Alliance, composed of Serbia and Montenegro, from March 24 to June 10 of that year. Although NATO ground forces remained stationary and the Southern Alliance’s army retained most of its strength, the Southern Alliance suffered the destruction of a large amount of its domestic civilian infrastructure and support systems due to air strikes, ultimately surrendering. This marked the first modern war in human history won solely through air strikes.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, airpower has continued to play a crucial role in various local wars and military conflicts. The intervention of the Russian military in the Syrian Civil War in 2015, where powerful airpower conducted large-scale air strikes against terrorist and anti-government forces, helped the Syrian government quickly reverse the battlefield situation. Therefore, when the Russian military launched special military operations on February 24, 2022, primarily using air forces, tactical ballistic missile units, and cruise missiles from different platforms, many initially believed that the Ukrainian government and military would not be able to withstand for long under such high-intensity, large-scale air strikes. It was expected to quickly succumb due to the collapse of the operational system.
However, unexpectedly to the outside world, the Russian Aerospace Forces and long-range missile units did not have the capability to launch a prolonged, high-intensity, large-scale air strike similar to the Gulf War in 1991. With the Ukrainian air forces and air defense forces not completely eliminated, Russian ground forces launched attacks from multiple directions, even deploying airborne units for a full-scale parachute drop at Antonov Airport northwest of Kyiv. As a result, the Russian ground forces suffered setbacks at the beginning of the war, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict turned into a protracted war. As Western countries continuously provided weapons, equipment assistance, personnel training, and even a large number of mercenaries to Ukraine, both sides entered a phase of mutual offense and defense. At this point, the Russian Aerospace Forces and long-range missile units still did not have the capability to eliminate the remaining forces of the Ukrainian air forces and air defense forces.
Finally, when Western countries started providing Ukraine with various advanced air defense weapons and equipment, as well as some Soviet-made fighter jets in 2023, allowing the Ukrainian air forces and air defense forces to be significantly reinforced, although the Russian Aerospace Forces could symbolically maintain control of the battlefield’s airspace, their role in determining the outcome of the war was greatly weakened.
With the Russian Aerospace Forces not performing as expected, the Russian Army had to rely on its artillery forces to sustain the situation. Additionally, the current ground battlefield between Russia and Ukraine is nearly transparent due to all-encompassing monitoring by satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, drones, and reconnaissance units. Any large-scale assembly or movement of ground forces from either side, once detected by the enemy, would attract a warm welcome of large-caliber shells or rockets. Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine conflict has turned into a “21st-century version of World War I,” with both sides using trenches as a clear demarcation line, continuously consuming each other’s living forces with large-caliber artillery, drones, and rocket artillery. Hence, it is not difficult to understand why large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery, almost marginalized ground weapons, have once again become the absolute dominators of the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, reclaiming the throne of the “God of War.”
Dual Enhancement of Artillery and Ammunition
In summary, after nearly two years of “meat grinder” style back-and-forth battles, both Russia and Ukraine, along with their Western backers, have realized that only by consuming each other’s living forces and main battle equipment as much as possible can they possibly win the final victory. The primary means to achieve this goal is the extensive use of advanced, high-precision large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery, including cruise missiles, suicide drones, and other weapons. However, large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery remain the most cost-effective and effective means of causing damage.
Therefore, we can see, on the one hand, the South Korean intelligence agency claiming that Russia has received over a million large-caliber artillery shells from foreign sources. On the other hand, Western countries have provided Ukraine with a large number of different models of large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery, making every effort to supply the necessary ammunition. According to incomplete statistics, the Russian artillery forces consume over 300,000 rounds of various large-caliber artillery shells each month, while the Ukrainian artillery forces consume around 100,000 rounds of large-caliber artillery shells per month. Considering that the ratio of large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery deployed by both Russia and Ukraine is at least 10:1, it is evident how high the firing intensity of the Ukrainian artillery forces is. Therefore, almost the entire Western world has now stirred up a “large-caliber artillery shell shortage.”
Before the establishment of the so-called “Artillery Alliance,” Western countries provided Ukraine with various models of large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery in a scattered manner, each acting on its own. Although the caliber of the artillery is mostly 155mm, and the rocket artillery caliber is 227mm, the logistical maintenance of the artillery and rocket artillery itself is quite complex. Additionally, most of the various artillery and rocket artillery provided by Western countries were second-hand equipment, either active or decommissioned, with limited service life. The intense use and firing intensity of the Ukrainian artillery forces led to frequent problems. Western countries believed that if the Ukrainian artillery forces were completely suppressed or even eliminated by the Russian forces, Ukraine’s failure would likely become inevitable.
In this situation, the formation of the “Artillery Alliance” led by France and the United States aims to organize and plan the various models of artillery and rocket artillery provided to Ukraine by different countries. It also seeks to coordinate efforts to increase the production capacity of accompanying ammunition, ensuring the supply of ammunition for the Ukrainian artillery forces. In the author’s analysis, with the establishment of the “Artillery Alliance,” urgent efforts will be made in the following aspects:
First, the 23 countries participating in the “Artillery Alliance” will, based on their own situations and Ukraine’s needs, quickly significantly increase the production capacity of ammunition, especially various types of 155mm artillery shells needed by Ukraine. According to current statements from various countries, France plans to increase its 155mm artillery shell production capacity from 1,000 rounds per month to 3,000 rounds per month, the United States plans to achieve a capacity of 57,000 rounds per month for 155mm artillery shells by 2024, and it will reach 100,000 rounds per month by 2025. The European Union plans to increase its 155mm artillery shell production capacity to between 1.3 million and 1.4 million rounds per year by the end of 2024. The greatest hope of achieving this goal lies in whether the four major European ammunition manufacturers, including Norway’s NAMMO and the UK’s BAE Systems, can successfully expand production capacity.
Second, the countries participating in the “Artillery Alliance” will produce brand-new large-caliber artillery and rocket artillery to aid Ukraine, rather than providing only second-hand equipment as before. This means that Western countries will need to further increase budget allocations. For example, France has approved a budget of 50 million euros to produce 12 new “Caesar” 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzers for Ukraine. France is calling on other countries in the “Artillery Alliance” to contribute and procure an additional 60 units of the same type of howitzer for Ukraine, suggesting some “selling of melons by the old lady” sentiment.
Of course, at present, NATO countries, including France, the UK, Germany, and the US, have a limited number of actively produced large-caliber self-propelled artillery models. The UK, to replace its current AS90 self-propelled howitzers, has to consider acquiring the K9 self-propelled howitzers produced by South Korea. Therefore, the countries in the “Artillery Alliance” may have to purchase newly produced artillery from other countries and then transfer them to Ukraine.