The relationship between China and the U.S. is one of the most crucial bilateral relationships in the world today, with their competition and cooperation influencing global peace and development. However, will the power gap between China and the U.S. narrow over time, altering the international order?
In response to this, Professor Yan Xuetong, a top political scientist in China, has provided a surprising answer: in the next decade, the power gap between China and the U.S. will not shrink but rather expand.
Professor Yan Xuetong is the director of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, and he expressed this viewpoint during a seminar on January 17.
While he did not elaborate on the basis of his judgment, he stated that he expects the gap between China and the U.S. to widen even if the growth rates of both countries decline. He believes this structural pattern is unlikely to change in the next ten years.
He also warned that some “wishful thinking” has led to an overestimation of China’s economic development, which could impact China’s strategic decision-making.
Professor Yan Xuetong’s perspective differs from some international observers who believe that China has already surpassed the U.S. on a purchasing power parity basis, becoming the world’s largest economy, and has gained a leading edge in certain high-tech areas.
They argue that competition between China and the U.S. will lead to a balance of power or even China’s advantage. This view also reflects the confidence and expectations of some Chinese people who hope that China can play a greater role on the international stage, safeguarding its interests and values.
However, the power gap between China and the U.S. is not a simple numerical issue but a complex and comprehensive matter involving economics, military, technology, culture, politics, and diplomacy.
In these aspects, both China and the U.S. have their strengths and weaknesses, and these advantages and disadvantages may change with the evolving international situation.
Therefore, accurately assessing the power gap between China and the U.S. requires a comprehensive and dynamic perspective rather than a one-sided and static viewpoint.
From a comprehensive and dynamic perspective, the power gap between China and the U.S. may not be narrowing as some imagine but could potentially widen. This is because the U.S., as a long-standing superpower, possesses strong comprehensive and soft power, extensive international influence, and ally relationships.
The U.S. has deep accumulations and advantages in economics, military, technology, culture, politics, and diplomacy. Faced with China’s rise and challenges, the U.S. has demonstrated strong adaptability and innovation.
The U.S. is unlikely to easily relinquish its global leadership but will take various measures to uphold and consolidate its interests and values.