On October 26th, a well-known military ID on X, M51.4ever@M51_4ever, tweeted that the United States’ hypersonic weapon had failed its third test launch. Similar to the previous two attempts, the hypersonic missile failed to ignite. With multiple previous failures, the future of the ARRW air-launched hypersonic weapon appears bleak, and equipping it by the end of 2023 seems increasingly improbable.
The United States has been lagging behind China and Russia in hypersonic weapons development for years. In recent years, they have conducted numerous hypersonic weapon test launches, with many of them ending in failure. The critical issues do not seem to stem from technological shortcomings but rather from problems in the integration of these advanced systems, raising concerns about the overall state of the U.S. high-tech military research and development system.
Empty Weapon Test Failure: What Type of Hypersonic Weapon Was it? The tweet by M51.4ever@M51_4ever mentioned, “Dark Eagle / #LRHW hypersonic weapon failed again? The bombers involved in the test are returning to their base, and the aircraft monitoring near the launch site did not capture the launch of the hypersonic missile. It seems like another failure!”
Based on the images provided, this test took place at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Two military aircraft flew towards the deep Atlantic Ocean, with one launching the other monitoring. The immediate result was that the monitoring aircraft did not observe the launch, and both aircraft returned to the Air Force base.
According to M51.4ever@M51_4ever, these two aircraft were testing the LRHW (Long Range Hypersonic Weapon), which the U.S. military planned to equip by the end of 2023. This marks the third failure of this hypersonic missile, with the previous two failures occurring in June 2022, when the LRHW’s two-stage booster failed to take off in Hawaii, and on September 7, 2023, when the LRHW test launch was canceled due to unspecified pre-flight checks.
However, it’s important to note that the LRHW project has not been a complete failure. In May 2020, the LRHW’s first-stage solid rocket motor was successfully tested, and in 2021, the LRHW missile’s two-stage booster and thrust vector control system were successfully tested. Despite these individual successes, the integration of the system as a whole has been problematic, resulting in consecutive failures.
The U.S. Army Association (AUSA) annual meeting held in Washington on October 9th featured James Mills, the Deputy Director of the Hypersonic Project Office at the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office (RCCTO). He expressed confidence in the LRHW (U.S. Army Hypersonic Project) timeline and expected it to be combat-ready by the end of 2023.
However, given the recent string of failures, it is now a cause for concern not whether LRHW can be combat-ready but rather whether it will be canceled altogether. The U.S. Army had received a training version of the LRHW ground equipment back in October 2021, but this equipment lacked the actual launch capability. The U.S. Army’s initial expectation was to equip the LRHW relatively quickly, leading to training activities. However, the training version has been in use for over two years, while the actual missiles are still encountering difficulties.
One might notice something unusual here. Those familiar with U.S. hypersonic weapons would recognize that the LRHW is a land-based system. However, the test conducted on October 26th was an air-launched version. This raises questions about the U.S. military’s strategy and intentions.
AARW and LRHW: Difficult Siblings The AARW (Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon) and LRHW are the most advanced hypersonic glide weapons in the U.S. military’s arsenal. LRHW is the land-based version, while AARW is the air-launched version. Although they have different lineages, they share the same goal.
LRHW: Deep Roots but a Bleak Future The “Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon” (LRHW) is approximately 10.5 meters long, with a diameter of 34.5 inches (0.8763 meters). It weighs 7.4 tons and has a maximum range of at least 2,775 kilometers. According to publicly available information, it can achieve speeds of up to Mach 17, with a total time to target of less than half an hour, making it a formidable weapon.
Additionally, its glide body, known as C-HGB, is an upgraded version of the hypersonic glide body developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Army. The primary difference between the two is the shape of the glide body, as SWERVE maintains a consistent angle from the tip to the rear, while C-HGB has a noticeable change in the middle, making it a double-cone hypersonic glide body with high recognizability.
On October 30, 2017, LRHW underwent its first mission test, launching from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai Island, Hawaii, targeting the Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll. The mission was considered successful.
Some may wonder why, given the success in 2017, LRHW is still undergoing testing in 2023. The main reason is that the rocket used in the 2017 test was a three-stage solid rocket from the Strategic Target System, designed for testing and not operational use. It was over 10 meters long and weighed over 16 tons. The U.S. military intended to transition to a two-stage version with reduced weight, but progress has been slow.
AARW: Once Resounding, Now Uncertain The AARW is the U.S. air-launched hypersonic weapon, measuring 6.7 meters in length, weighing approximately 3 tons, with a range of 1,600 kilometers and a top speed of Mach 20. It garnered attention in 2021 and was predominantly tested on B-52 bombers.
However, AARW has faced recent setbacks. On March 13, 2023, the U.S. Air Force launched an AARW missile from a B-52H bomber over the Southern California coast. The missile successfully separated from the aircraft and ignited. However, the data link experienced a malfunction after launch, and the whereabouts of the AARW hypersonic missile became unknown. Only on March 24 did the U.S. Air Force release a statement, saying that the test on March 13 had “achieved several objectives,” and the engineering team was collecting data for further analysis. However, it was later revealed that the data link failure and the loss of the AARW missile occurred after the successful launch.
AARW was once a highly anticipated hypersonic missile for the U.S. Air Force. In contrast, China and Russia had already developed and fielded their hypersonic missiles, including land-based variants like the DF-17, DF-26, DF-27, and sea-based versions like the YJ-21. There have also been reports of China testing an air-launched version of the YJ-21. While China and Russia have made significant strides in hypersonic technology, the U.S. has faced multiple challenges.
The U.S. military has continuously pushed for hypersonic weapons development. In October 2022, the Department of Defense conducted 12 hypersonic weapon technology tests. They even issued requirements for hypersonic weapon development, urging the military to expedite hypersonic weapons development, even without wind tunnel facilities. This urgency arose due to multiple failures and a threat from the U.S. Air Force to cancel the AARW program.
In summary, the AARW faced five tests, with three failures, one partial failure, and one successful test. Even though the Air Force threatened to cancel the program, it allowed two more tests in 2023 to gather more data. However, the results of the October 26th test suggest that it may have been the final attempt, and the missile failed to launch.
The Critical Flaw Is Not in the Weak Link: Where Did the U.S. Go Wrong? Many observers attribute the failures of U.S. hypersonic weapons to issues with the materials used in the missile’s warhead. These materials must withstand high temperatures while allowing the passage of radio waves. While the U.S. has made progress in heat-resistant materials, the materials tend to be heavy and have poor radio wave transparency.
China, on the other hand, has already achieved heat-resistant and radio wave-transparent materials, and recent reports suggest China has developed reusable heat-resistant materials. This puts China well ahead in preparing for hypersonic aircraft, while the U.S. faces multiple failures.
The most critical issue is that the recent hypersonic weapon failures are not due to problems with the missile’s warhead materials. Instead, they involve separation failures, ignition failures, or the missile simply not moving. These failures are significant concerns, as the U.S. is a pioneer in modern rocketry. The repeated failures of hypersonic projects in an area where the U.S. traditionally excels raise questions about the management of high-tech research and development projects.
These failures may be linked to a pattern of declining technical talent within U.S. government agencies and an overreliance on outsourcing. In the past, agencies like NASA managed projects directly, and their success was globally renowned. However, in recent years, projects like the Artemis program have faced multiple delays. This pattern is mirrored in the military, where many projects have ended prematurely or proceeded with deficiencies, often with contractors making excessive demands. The trend of outsourcing and the hollowing out of in-house technical expertise may be at the root of these problems.
In conclusion, the U.S. military’s approach to hypersonic weapons development is facing severe challenges. Without a reevaluation and restructuring of research and development institutions, the high cost of these failures may continue to drain military budgets. As a result, the prospects for equipping hypersonic missiles in the U.S. remain uncertain, and it’s unclear when they will become operational. (Xingchen)