The U.S. Pentagon released its annual report on China’s military capabilities on Thursday (19th), indicating that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing to use military force to drive reunification with Taiwan in case of emergencies and to prevent interventions by third parties such as the U.S. Beijing continues to make preparations around Taiwan, expressing its dissatisfaction with the growing military relations between the U.S. and Taiwan. The report also highlighted that there are significant risks for Beijing in attempting a large-scale amphibious landing in Taiwan. If a conflict prolongs, the PLA might escalate to cyber warfare, space warfare, or even nuclear warfare to end the conflict.
The report detailed that the PLA continues to conduct military exercises around Taiwan. The frequency and types of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) are increasing. In preparation for a potential invasion of Taiwan, China is requisitioning and retrofitting civilian vessels for transporting tanks or for helicopters to take off and land, thereby utilizing them for amphibious assault missions. Compared to the previous year, the number of such vessels doubled, with at least 10 civilian vessels observed in the PLA’s military exercises last year. The U.S. also listed increasing military actions by the PLA, including dangerous interceptions of U.S. or allied vessels and aircraft, launching missiles over Taiwan, large-scale joint blockades, and live-fire exercises.
The report reiterated that there are significant risks in Beijing’s plans for a large-scale amphibious landing in Taiwan. China will do its utmost to prevent U.S. intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation. If the conflict duration extends, the PLA might escalate to cyber warfare, space warfare, or nuclear warfare to end the hostilities. Analysts suggest that the PLA could implement air and sea blockades on Taiwan lasting weeks or months, conduct limited military operations to erode the confidence of the Taiwanese public in their leadership, launch precision airstrikes to destroy key military facilities in Taiwan, conduct amphibious landings, and seize Taiwanese islands to demonstrate political resolve. However, the Pentagon also pointed out that a large-scale amphibious landing, which requires air-sea superiority and logistical support, would be one of the PLA’s most challenging and complex military operations, putting significant pressure on them. On October 3rd this year, a PLA “Gongji-2 drone” (also known as Wing Loong-2) crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait for the first time.
Quoting data from Taiwan’s military, the report revealed that last year, a total of 1,737 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ, a 79% increase from the 972 aircraft in 2021. The types of aircraft deployed were also more diverse. Since the release of drone data beginning in September of last year, drones accounted for about 10% of the total in ADIZ operations.
Finally, the report mentioned that the PLA is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are conventional force missiles. Once successfully developed, they could directly threaten the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, and Alaska. Moreover, China is expanding its nuclear arsenal. As of May this year, the PLA possessed over 500 nuclear warheads, with projections of surpassing 1,000 by 2030. Currently, the U.S. has 3,750 nuclear warheads. Senior officials stated that the U.S. would only resort to using nuclear weapons under extreme circumstances.