Recently, with the assistance of the Islamic Jihad, Hamas in the Gaza Strip of Palestine launched a surprise military operation against Israel. This caught Israel off guard, resulting in a significant loss of life and property that has been rare in recent years. Israel promptly retaliated with a large-scale military response. As of now, the conflict continues and may soon spread deeper into Gaza. As the conflict escalates, concerns arise about the potential of it turning into a regional war, jeopardizing the security of the Middle East and the world. Long-standing resentments are on the verge of erupting.
The current military conflict is the result of long-standing religious conflicts, ethnic differences, territorial disputes, and civil issues between Israel and Palestine. The long-standing grudges held by Palestinian resistance groups have exploded at this moment.
Presently, Palestine mainly consists of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This conflict was initiated by Hamas, which governs in the Gaza Strip, and was aided in combat by another military-political organization in Gaza, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
In reality, including the Gaza Strip, Palestine is essentially under Israeli control. While Israel hasn’t directly occupied Gaza, they have kept it under a tight siege. From Hamas’ perspective, their military attacks against Israel are acts of resistance. Among the Palestinians, Hamas might be the primary force currently capable and willing to resist Israel.
The reasons for this conflict are multifaceted. On one hand, tensions and conflicts resulting from the previous Israeli police intervention at the Al-Aqsa Mosque had not fully subsided. During the Israeli festival of Sukkot, Jewish extremists again entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque for prayers, igniting the anger of the Palestinians and exacerbating the situation. On the other hand, Israel continues to dismantle unauthorized Palestinian structures in the occupied territories and displace Palestinians, intensifying their longstanding grievances. Furthermore, Israel has detained thousands of Hamas militants. Hamas aims to secure their release, in part by capturing Israelis as bargaining chips for exchange.
Driven by these factors, Hamas launched a military operation against Israel. There have also been recent reports of successful talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, facilitated by the United States. Hamas fears that this could further marginalize and betray Palestine. Meanwhile, through smuggling, Hamas has secretly amassed weapons like rockets and drones, sufficient to challenge Israel in combat.
Tactically speaking, Hamas seems to have achieved its goals. For instance, they’ve captured over a hundred Israelis and temporarily disrupted the covert negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Strategically, however, Hamas might not be the victor. They’ve lost more than 1,500 militants in Israel, and Israel has systematically targeted Hamas military commanders, political leaders, and infrastructure. It might take Hamas a long time to recover from these losses.
Moreover, by indiscriminately attacking Israelis and even foreigners, Hamas has angered many countries. Western nations and Israel have further solidified the label of Hamas as a “terrorist organization,” enabling Israel to act against them without restraint.
After the attacks, Israel launched a severe retaliatory strike against Hamas. Israel’s intelligence system and security capabilities are now under serious scrutiny. An operation involving over a thousand Hamas militants, requiring extensive organization and drills, should have been detected by Israeli intelligence.
Looking at the current situation, the likelihood of this conflict escalating into a regional war is low. The prerequisites for such an escalation would be the involvement of neighboring Arab countries or pro-Iranian organizations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, or even Iran itself. Currently, Arab nations are unlikely to assist Hamas or fight for Palestine. Iran does not want to exacerbate the situation, and the US has positioned aircraft carriers to prevent the conflict from escalating. This conflict might end with Israel eradicating Hamas.
(The author of this article is Gao Shangtao, the Director of the Middle East Research Center at the China Diplomatic Academy.)