In recent years, predictions about when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might have the capacity to take action against Taiwan have been a prominent topic of discussion in both Chinese and international circles. Huang Shuguang, a consultant member of Taiwan’s National Security Council, recently opined that by 2027, the PLA might possess the capability to act against Taiwan. However, he clarified that having the capability does not necessarily imply the intent to act, as the decision to do so is a separate matter.
Huang outlined two primary conditions for the PLA to move against Taiwan. Firstly, the PLA would need to deploy at least three carrier battle groups. These would be strategically located in the northeast, southeast, and southwest maritime zones of Taiwan. One would be positioned in the southeast to counter Guam, another in the northeast to offset the US and Japan, and the third in the southwest.
Shandong carrier, currently one of the world’s most advanced, has benefited from being constructed later and being equipped with state-of-the-art onboard technology. However, the Shandong is not the ultimate goal for the Chinese navy. Its creation serves as a bridge to the next generation of carriers. Once these newer vessels are in service, the PLA will be a step closer to being a top-tier naval force.
Drawing from operational considerations, Huang concurred with the timeline put forth by the former US Indo-Pacific Command leader, Philip Davidson, which pegs 2027 as the year when China would at least have three carrier battle groups ready for action. The decision to act would also be influenced by the relative strength or decline of US military capabilities, along with various political and international factors.
Huang pointed to the timeline of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s third term and emphasized the fluid nature of China’s military build-up and economic growth. In light of these assessments, he believes that Taiwan’s defense forces should significantly enhance their self-defense readiness before 2027. This proactive stance might prompt Xi Jinping to alter or postpone any potential plans.