On July 17, the Chinese and Indian armies held the 16th round of commander-level talks on the Indian side of the Mordo/Chushule meeting point. The official website of the Ministry of National Defense of China issued a joint press release in both Chinese and English late at night on July 18. The overall wording is similar to the previous one. The only difference is that in the sentence “Continue to discuss and promote the settlement of issues related to the line of actual control in the western sector of the Sino-Indian border in a constructive and forward-looking manner”, “in a constructive and forward-looking manner” has been added. Public opinion generally thinks this is a very positive signal.
After a rare bloody clash on the Sino-Indian border in June 2020, the two militaries began to hold commander-level talks to discuss follow-up matters. The 16th round of commander-level talks will still focus on issues related to the Western Sector Line of Control area involved in the confrontation in 2020.
“India Business Online” reported that during the meeting, accusers from both sides discussed the issue of disengagement of troops at the PP-15 patrol point (commonly known as “Hot Spring”). The 972-square-kilometer complex issue of the “Dapson Basin” will be discussed after the disengagement in the “hot springs” area is resolved, sources in the Indian Ministry of Defense said. The Times of India earlier reported that the talks started at 9:30 a.m. and ended at about 10 p.m. and lasted for more than 12 hours. India reportedly asked China to withdraw troops deployed at two disputed points in eastern Ladakh during the talks, while India also sought to restore patrolling rights in the Dapson Basin. In addition, India has also asked China not to send military aircraft into the skies near friction points on the border between the two countries.
Judging from the information reported by Indian media, China and India are still negotiating the issue of disengagement control in key areas such as the Dapson Basin and Hot Spring.
Negotiations around these issues have been going on for a long time. The previous fourteenth and fifteenth rounds of negotiations focused on these. In the past two years, apart from an initial consensus on disengagement and withdrawal of troops in the Pangong Lake front-line area, there has been little substantial progress in the negotiations since 2021.
After the confrontation, the two sides held three rounds of negotiations on June 6, June 22, and June 30, 2020; and then on July 14, August 2, September 21, October 12, The fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth rounds of negotiations were held on November 6. On January 24 and February 10, 2021, the two sides held the ninth and tenth rounds of commander-level talks; on April 10, August 2, and October 10 of the same year, China and India held the eleventh, twelfth and thirteenth rounds of commander-level talks. The fourteenth, fifteenth and sixteenth rounds of talks were held on January 12, March 11, and July 17, 2022.
The two sides initially held talks three times in a month and then basically once a month, with only two months between the eighth and ninth rounds. Since the tenth round, the negotiation interval has been between two and four months, and the frequency is much lower than the previous ten rounds of talks, indicating that the difficulty of negotiation has increased. And the negotiation process was not entirely smooth sailing. In the eleventh and thirteenth rounds, the talks broke up unhappily, and the two sides did not issue a joint press release.
Why are the negotiating parties willing to continue even though the negotiation has been delayed for a long time?
China and India have a clear understanding of each other’s relations. Continued dangerous confrontation is a lose-lose situation, and a consensus on not going to war without deterioration has been gradually formed. According to the current border situation, it is difficult for any party to make a substantial retreat.
Zheng Zhen, a current affairs analyst, believes that India’s request is essentially for China to act according to the position of the Line of Actual Control as understood by India, which is unrealistic and the PLA will not easily retreat. With the support of its economic strength, China has already begun to make up for the past situation of insufficient military investment, and the construction of border areas has been rapidly advanced. India’s speed of actual control generally lags behind that of China, but it is unwilling and unable to publicly acknowledge the disappearance of actual control in some areas. In order to stop conflict, the two sides can only continue to talk.
It is more meaningful to have regular contact with figures at the commander level to reiterate the consensus on maintaining security and stability than to talk about results. China and India are entering a new stage in which the border situation is normally managed and controlled by commander-level negotiations. Negotiations to maintain stability will be the new normal on the China-India border.
