With the reappearance of the “Saigon Moment” in the United States’ woeful pullout from Afghanistan, comments about the U.S. weakening into a paper tiger have not ceased, and U.S. President Joe Biden’s commitment to Taiwan appears fragile and vague, heating up the topic of mainland China’s unification of Taiwan by force.
Ning Nanshan, a famous Chinese industrial and economic analyst, posted an article on August 23rd local time to analyze the possible timeline of China’s unification with Taiwan, mentioning the development of the industrial chain in addition to military equipment.
Ning said that China definitely wants to take the initiative to start the unification process when it is fully prepared, and then consider unification by force if peaceful unification does not work. Ning Nanshan estimates that the time point of being ready will be around 2025 to 2030, because by then China’s total economic output would have surpassed that of the United States. The combat effectiveness of the Chinese Navy’s aircraft carrier formation will be greatly improved on the current basis. The number of aircraft carriers is estimated to increase from the current two to about five, and they will have electromagnetic ejection capabilities, and be equipped with fixed-wing early warning aircraft, carrier-based fourth-generation aircraft, ship-based long-range drones, etc., and the combat effectiveness will be greatly improved, and the new generation of bombers will also be in service and form combat effectiveness. The number of new destroyers such as Type 055 “Blade Sea” class will increase significantly from the current three.
Ning also estimates that by 2030, China’s semiconductor industry chain will be autonomous and no longer subject to U.S. constraints, its semiconductor production capacity will be at least twice to three times higher than it is now, China’s core industries such as electronic information and automobiles, and the ability to resist war in the Taiwan Strait and a joint U.S.-Japanese blockade will be greatly enhanced, and the per capita GDP of the three major economic spheres of Beijing-Tianjin, Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai, and Guangdong will exceed or catch up with Taiwan’s level, which would help dissolve Taiwan’s sense of superiority and lay a realistic foundation for post-war ideological governance.
But Ning Nanshan also pointed out that things often do not materialize in an ideal state, noting that the Americans are well aware that China’s total economic output will surpass that of the United States around 2027, so they launched a trade war and a technology war against China in 2018, almost 10 years ahead.
Ning Nanshan said that when the two armies are fighting on the battlefield, their opponents will never quietly wait for China to prepare for all attacks before attacking them. The idea that China wants to buy more time for development is well known to the Taiwan independence forces, the United States, Japan, etc. They are well aware that time is on the side of the faster-developing China, so they are bound to keep making it more difficult for China to unify Taiwan during this period, including selling weapons to Taiwan in large numbers, creating and expanding Taiwan’s external political and diplomatic ties to deplete China’s diplomatic resources, sending military aircraft and individual armed personnel into Taiwan, and constantly promoting ideological Taiwan independence through various small actions, Taiwan’s development of long-range missiles, and so on.
Ning Nanshan said that if the sausage is continuously sliced, too much quantitative change will cause qualitative change, and once the red line of mainland China’s tolerance is crossed, the war of reunification is bound to be fought immediately, without waiting for the ideal point of time of 2030.
Ning Nanshan believes that at some point in the future, cross-strait reunification is something that will definitely happen, and with the strengthening of mainland China, this day is getting closer and closer.