On July 28, Beijing time, the USS Reagan was found sailing from north to south in the East China Sea area northwest of the Amami Islands. The Amami Islands are an archipelago in the central part of the Ryukyu Islands in the southern part of Kyushu, Japan.
The USS Reagan aircraft carrier uses the Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan as its homeport and is the only US resident aircraft carrier in the waters surrounding China in the Western Pacific. On July 4th and 17th, the aircraft carrier and the “Nimitz” aircraft carrier organized two dual-carrier battle group exercises in the South China Sea. After that, they conducted trilateral military exercises with Japan and Australia in the Philippine Sea. The last US military exercise with dual aircraft carriers in the South China Sea took place in 2014 – six years ago.
Obviously, with the tightening of Sino-US relations, the military contest has intensified, and the US military aircraft carrier has become a well-tested weapon for the United States to exert military pressure on China’s periphery. The Chinese side seems to be trying to counter and expel the US aircraft carrier.
On July 30, the Ministry of National Defense of China revealed that the Southern Theater Naval Aviation Corps recently organized H-6G, H-6J and other new fighters to carry out day and night high-intensity training in relevant waters of the South China Sea, completing day and night take-offs and landings, long-range raids, and seas. Training courses such as target attacks have achieved the expected results. It is self-evident what the objective is in the training course of “long-range raids and attacks on sea targets”.
The H-6G and H-6J bombers are the latest modified bombers of the H-6. The H-6 has the advantages of long-range and fast speed. On this basis, the H-6G once carried an electronic warfare pod, and it should be known for electronic warfare; while the H-6J is an anti-surface target platform that can carry up to 7 YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. The “Shipborne Weapons” magazine once disclosed that the YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile is one of the world’s strongest anti-ship weapons independently developed by the Chinese military.
Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping said that the biggest advantage of the YJ-12 missile is its supersonic attack capability, which can reach three times the speed of sound and an attack distance of 300 kilometers.” For the enemy’s defense system, the missile is indefensible. In addition, this missile adopts multiple modes of infrared and radar guidance, and its strike accuracy is higher.
Although China already has DF-21D and DF-26 ballistic missiles known as “aircraft carrier killers”, they are not easy to use due to their inconvenience for external display. Once used, it means war, so the “space for operation” is small. In contrast, a bomber capable of attacking sea targets can cause considerable military pressure and deterrence if it approaches a US warship or even an aircraft carrier, and it is more convenient to operate.
First of all, the cost of the H-6G and H-6J fighters is not proportional to the cost of the aircraft carrier. China’s risk-taking costs are lower, and it is more confident to exert pressure. However, the aircraft carrier has to consider that if there is a misfire or if the other party fires first, even if all the enemy aircraft are shot down, it will be more than a loss.
Second, fighter deterrence has ample operating space. For example, the type and scale of fighters, the number of bombs, the frequency and timing of trips, the distance, and the way of flight can all be flexibly adjusted. The Chinese Air Force and Naval Aviation, which rely on a vast land area, undoubtedly have an overwhelming advantage over having a limited fleet of one or two aircraft carriers.
According to military analyst Qing Ping, although China and the United States have exerted pressure on each other in the waters surrounding China in the Western Pacific in recent years, the risk of war has increased, but the possibility of a real war should still be small. The demonstrations and encounters of military aircraft, warships, and aircraft carriers of the two countries, as well as the approach and reconnaissance of drones and unmanned submarines, were mostly restrained. The two sides occasionally had close contacts, and there was no substantial contact, let alone the situation of gunfire. The 2001 Sino-US plane collision incident further illustrates that even if the two armies have a certain degree of substantial conflict, it will not necessarily lead to a large-scale and high-intensity war.