At noon June 9 local time, Taiwan’s defense department issued a message stating that several Su-30 aircraft of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army was close to Taiwan’s southwestern airspace and left after being driven away by Taiwanese fighter jets. And at the same time earlier, there was an incident of the US military C-40C administrative aircraft “changing the course” in Taiwan’s airspace, so various conspiracy theories burst out at once, and many public opinion think that the US military aircraft went south to fight against the Su-30 fighter group of the People’s Liberation Army.
But according to Taiwan military analyst Chen Zongyi, although the whole story seems to be interpreted so smoothly, in the brief press release issued by Taiwan’s defense department, there are already a few things suspicious.
First of all, as long as the PLA military aircraft enter Taiwan’s “Air Defense Identification Zone” (ADIZ), Taiwan’s defense department would state clearly that the PLA military aircraft enter the Taiwan air defense identification zone. However, the press release on June 9 only wrote the ambiguous word “airspace”, and some media asked the department to verify whether the so-called “airspace” refers to the air defense identification zone but was refused, and was told that the matter involved confidentiality, and Taiwan’s airspace was well protected by the Taiwan Air Force. So Taiwan’s defense department rarely uses “airspace” without defining whether it is an air defense identification zone. So one possibility is that the PLA aircraft has approached or entered Taiwan’s territorial air space. If this is true, it is the first time that PLA planes have done so, which is a big deal.
In addition, are they Su-30 fighters? Also suspicious. Those who observe the use of the PLA’s military aircraft know that Su-30 has been in the PLA’s military service for almost 20 years, and has already withdrawn from the first-line combat power and switched to the second-line auxiliary aircraft. Both Su30MKK of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and Su30MKII of the Chinese Naval Air Force have retreated to the second line, replaced by China’s homemade J-16 fighters. The appearance of J-16 is not much different from that of Su-30, and it is difficult to distinguish by naked eyes. It can only be identified by some components and the fuselage number. Are those who were close to Taiwan’s “airspace” on June 9 J-16 fighters, instead of the Su-30 fighters mentioned by Taiwan’s defense department, it is also a mystery because the department will never answer any questions. On one hand, they refuse to answer to deceive and mislead the enemy, or they don’t want to reveal the intelligence and resources that Taiwan has; on the other hand, it may be a mistake in identification.
Why is it more likely that they were J-16 fighter instead of Su-30 fighters? Judging from the frequency of the PLA’s circling Taiwan in recent years, the fighter planes used by the PLA were imported fighters like Su-27, Su-30 and Su-35 at the early stage but have recently been replaced by self-made fighter jets. For example, in March 2019, China’s homemade J-11 crossed the Taiwan Strait mid-line. The PLA has switched to homemade fighter aircraft to demonstrate military strength and self-confidence. On February 9th and 10th of this year, J-11 fighters not only crossed the Taiwan Strait midline, but also used fire control radar to lock in F-16 fighters of the Taiwan Air Force. The two sides fought fiercely and ended up with F-16 fighters leaving the scene. From this, Chen Zongyi thinks that starting in 2019, the People’s Liberation Army has been so confident that it has begun to use self-made fighters to challenge Taiwan’s air defense.
Besides, when the PLA military planes invaded Taiwan’s “airspace” this time, the Chiayi Base of the Taiwan Air Force had already rumored about F-16 fighters’ full-bomb alert, and there was more than one full-bomb alert fighter, so the situation was urgent.
According to the comprehensive judgment of the intelligence obtained so far, J-16 naval aviation fighter jets should have taken off from Guangdong, to escort an unknown number of J-16D electric fighters to collect parameters from Taiwan, and even tested an offensive electric warfare device. It’s speculated that the PLA’s fighter planes gradually cross the mid-strait line and directly challenge Taiwan’s airspace with this “Salami tactics” to tighten, encircle Taiwan’s air defense areas, and approach the limits of the Taiwan army, which should be in line with the PLA’s current grand strategy.
And the U.S. military C-40 executive plane flying over Taiwan’s airspace may be a factor that triggers the PLA’s military aircraft to approach Taiwan’s “airspace”, although it might have changed its course due to climate changes.
According to Chen, some sources believe that the takeoff and landing of U.S. military aircraft are all under surveillance by the People’s Liberation Army in the Western Pacific Region. So Chinese People’s Liberation Army might be surprised that the U.S. military aircraft entered Taiwan’s airspace, so for the purpose of “sovereignty declaration”, their fighter fleets approached or even entered Taiwan’s airspace, in order to remind the United States that Taiwan is part of China, and it cannot fly over or even land in Taiwan at will. And when the PLA military plane confronted the Taiwanese military plane, it was not impossible for the US military C-40 plane to witness the entire process in the airspace at the southwestern end of Taiwan. In addition, the terminal of the C-40 flight was Thailand.
In Chen’s opinion, the dual-engine heavy fighters are used to challenge Taiwan’s single-engine light-duty fighter, that’s why the United States advised Tsai Ing-wen in her first term in office to purchase a batch of F-15C heavy air superiority fighters with dual engines, just to cope with such a situation. However, Tsai Ing-wen’s government instead purchased new F-16V Blk70 jets, which was expensive and had an indefinite extension due to the pneumonia epidemic. Nowadays, the PLA J-11 and J-16 fighters have become mature dual-engine heavy fighters and are challenging Taiwan’s airspace. Will the Taiwan Air Force shoot down in the gradual struggle of entrapment? Or let it fly over the airspace and keep silent? This has become quite difficult political choices.